Value betting – Learn how to find value bets
Successful bettors cannot do without value betting, i.e. valuable bets. It is a search for courses whose value is overestimated by the bookmaker and should realistically be lower. Simply put, a bettor chooses bets that have a higher probability of winning than the bookmaker’s quoted odds suggest. In this way, the bettor gets a slight advantage over the bookmaker, but you can certainly guess that it will not be so easy to determine a worthwhile bet. Let’s break down this betting method together.
An example of value betting
We already talked about what a value bet is in the introduction, so now we will look at a specific example that would not occur in the real world of bookmakers, but it is more than enough to understand the principle.
Let’s say we want to bet on a coin toss. We will assume that the coin is balanced, so our chances are 50 to 50. A 50% chance is expressed by odds of 2.00 (100 : 50 = 2). We have a bookmaker offering odds of 2.1 to go eagle. So how do you calculate a value bet?
Sample
(50% x 2.1) – 100% = 5%
50% – our calculated probability of winning
2.1 – the course listed by the bookmaker
100% – we have to subtract 100% each time to get the exact probability percentage
As you can see for yourself, this is a valuable bet and definitely worth it for us to bet on because we would make money in the long run. It probably goes without saying that determining the probability of winning is a decisive factor for correct value betting.
How to evaluate a bet or what value betting consists of
Anyone who is serious about betting and would like to stay in the plus in the long term should orientate themselves in the sport they want to bet on. This is a necessary prerequisite for value betting, without which it is impossible to correctly determine the value of the bet. We say up front that determining value bets is not a simple matter that you will learn overnight. However, the passionate bettor cannot be deterred by this and will try to penetrate this issue.
CALCULATE YOUR OWN RATE
What do we mean? In the age of the internet, we have all the necessary information about the match at our disposal, with which we can try to determine the predicted odds for a given betting opportunity. This is not only the history of the last 10 matches, but also club information regarding injuries, changes in team formations, home/away wins and losses, etc. In short, all information that could affect the match in any way. In this way, you calculate the predicted rate for the given betting opportunity and compare it with the bookmaker’s rate.
If the bookmaker’s rate is higher than yours, it is a value bet that, if calculated correctly, is worth betting on.
BETTER FOCUS
Pick one sport you understand and focus on it. A bettor’s focus is important because no one can be an expert on everything, despite the fact that even one sport can overwhelm you with a ton of information to process. If you are interested in football and watch it on a daily basis, then don’t hesitate and go for it.
CHOOSE WITH YOUR MIND, NOT WITH YOUR HEART
The goal of value betting is to correctly evaluate the probability of winning a specific event. Therefore, when deciding who to bet on, do not get carried away by your own affection for one or another team. If you have problems with this, it is better not to bet on the match at all, because your tips should be based on real calculations and not on mere belief or faith.
It is also important to remember that even the favorites are not infallible and will easily lose to a team from the bottom of the table. Sometimes, for example, an injury to one of the key players or other problems is enough. All of this needs to be taken into account in your calculations. On the other hand, many bettors are afraid to bet on outsiders, even if their calculations indicated that it would be a worthwhile bet. Practice scoring bets in the dark (without betting real money) and watch how you do to gain confidence in your calculations over time.
The advantage of the bookmaker
Of course, no bookmaker will offer you a chance for value betting just like that. On the contrary, its effort is to underestimate the odds so that it never comes up short. In addition, each bookmaker takes a commission from individual bets so that they are always in the red. It is best seen on the example of that coin. We have only two possible outcomes of a coin toss – heads and tails – the probability is 50/50. A bookmaker would never quote odds of 2.00 heads and 2.00 heads because they would lose out. Instead, it will list, for example, odds of 1.9 on both outcomes. The one-tenth she took off the course goes into her pocket.
A real example from a bookmaker
Let’s imagine a Champions League match between Real Madrid and Liverpool, where the odds for the English team to win are 2.8, which is about a 35% chance. However, we carried out a thorough analysis, during which we found that Liverpool has a slightly better chance of success, namely 47%.
(47% x 2.8) – 100% = 31.6%
Since we got a positive value, this is a value bet. If the number in percentage were negative, then the
